Dream you’re mine

The journey from miscarriage to whatever comes next

The numbers April 9, 2008

Filed under: Uncategorized — agplatters @ 10:06 pm

All these numbers keep rolling around in my head.  Here’s an attempt to shut off that part of my brain:

Personal chance of getting pregnant

We tried for a year and had 8 months to possibly get pregnant during that time.  Two months we took off.  So that brings it down to 6 opportunities.  Then 3 pregnancies.  So my personal rate of getting pregnant is 50%.  Maybe even more since those first few months I was still coming off the pill.

Personal chance of a miscarriage

So I’m 3 for 3.  100%.  

Projected ability to have a healthy child at 39 (that is the earliest I’d have a baby)

My doc provided info on the incidence rate of down’s syndrome and any chromosomal abnormalities.  At 39, there is a 1/137 (<1%) chance of a child with down’s.  There is a 1/82 (1.2%) chance of having a child with a chromosomal problem of some kind.

So if you look at my chance of getting pregnant, carrying it to term and then having a healthy child 9 months later, it is 0% chance since my miscarriage rate is 100%. But let’s use 50%, since they say that is the possibility of having a healthy pregnancy after 3 miscarriages.

.50 (chance of getting pregnant each month) X .50 (chance of having a full term pregnancy)=.25

So I have a 1 in 4 chance of going to term.  If only that meant pregnancy number 4 would result in a baby.  But then there is the 1% chance that it wouldn’t be healthy too.  So I have less than a 25% chance on any given month of actually getting and staying pregnant.  And that is if they can figure out why this is happening and do something about it.  In reality, given my current situation, that chance is 0%.  Wow.


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